Bear Markets

You may find this chart interesting (below, click for bigger), showing the previous bear market, duration approx 17 years early '66 to late summer '82. Bear markets tend to last 20 years mas o menos. This one started in '00 and is thought to be worse than the 70's bear, being the "correction" pattern of the entire growth cycle from the end of the depression bear market. That fits the fundamental reality with Europe, Japan, and US all having "default" levels of debt weighing down growth (not the case in the 70's bear).

The question becomes is the worst over, or to come? The universally denied higher probability is (in my opinion) "to come". Governments will try to prevent and avoid, the question then becomes how desperate will they get? Established political orders are literally fighting for their lives, it is just not completely obvious yet.

This economic depression (corrective cycle) is very possibility bigger than the so called Great Depression. Fundamental economic conditions across the developed world certainly support that view. Counter to that view is govts saying "hey don't worry, we got this!" OK.