Our current establishment is trying very hard to "guarantee" that the stock market only goes up (and does not go down, in a repeat of one of mankind's enduring follies).
It goes without saying (doesn't it?) that these are not "free market" conditions, and in general it is more difficult to "make money" in a centrally controlled market than a free market.
Why? The problem is there is only one mechanism capable of guaranteeing a stock market does not go down, and that is to "force" inflation by "printing" the base currency in sufficient amounts to "do the deed". (click for larger)
The problem with that is the "real wealth" (buying power of net assets converted to cash) of the average conservative investor will diminish even as stocks go up, because in the longer run, conditions of "induced" inflation will cause base currency to devalue more than stock indices increase in value. You can see the effect of such inflation on the chart below of the Dow index priced in gold, which simply shows in numeric terms how many ounces of gold it would take to buy 1 unit of the Dow. (click for larger)
Hummm, the price of stocks (their value) compared to value of gold topped out in 1999, and it has been consistently downhill since! This is an excellent general measure of the very real inflation induced by the ongoing historically high rate of "printing" dollars.
The term caveat emptor comes to mind.
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